A fatal shooting in Christchurch (as reported by RNZ, February 2026). A district court judge under fire. Youth motocross deaths prompting a coroner's inquest. The news right now feels like New Zealand is spinning into chaos. So here's a question: why are youth court orders for sexual assault and related offences falling off a cliff?

In 2024, there were 351 youth court orders for sexual assault offences. That's down 28% from the previous year. It's the lowest number in five years. And it's not a blip — it's part of a clear downward trend from the pandemic-era peak of 489 orders in 2020 (Source: Ministry of Justice, youth-court-orders).

This isn't the story you'd expect if you've been following the political rhetoric. Youth crime dominates headlines. Boot camps. Tough-on-crime policies. But the data for one of the most serious categories of offending — sexual assault — tells a different story. Orders have dropped 18% since 2020. They've fallen in three of the past four years.

What's driving it? The data doesn't say. It could be fewer offences. It could be changes in how police and courts handle these cases. It could be diversion programmes working. Or it could be reporting behaviour shifting. The Ministry of Justice doesn't break down the reasons. What we know is the trend line: down.

Here's what makes this number politically awkward. Sexual assault is one category where you'd expect universal alarm if numbers were rising. And if you're pushing a narrative that youth offending is spiralling out of control, you need the serious stuff — violence, sexual offences — to be getting worse. But it's not. At least not in youth court.

The 2024 figure of 351 orders is still higher than the early 1990s, when it hovered around 250. But the recent trajectory is unmistakable. From 2020's peak of 489, we've seen four consecutive years of decline or stability. That's not chaos. That's a trend.

None of this means sexual assault isn't a problem. Every one of those 351 orders represents a serious offence and a young person in the justice system. But if we're going to have an honest conversation about youth crime, we need to look at all the data — not just the categories that fit the narrative. Right now, on one of the most serious measures, the numbers are falling. You just wouldn't know it from the headlines.