A coroner has just ordered a joint inquest into four youth motocross fatalities (as reported by RNZ, February 2026), putting young people's safety back in the headlines. But here's the number nobody's talking about: in 2024, youth courts ordered just 84 young people into education and rehabilitation programmes — less than half the 159 ordered in 2018. (Source: Ministry of Justice, youth-court-orders)

That's not because we've suddenly got fewer troubled kids. Youth offending prosecutions have been climbing. The gap is in what happens after the gavel comes down.

The collapse happened fast. Between 2018 and 2019, orders for education and rehab programmes dropped 70% — from 159 to just 48. They stayed frozen at 48 for three straight years, through COVID lockdowns and their aftermath. Then in 2024, they ticked up to 84. That's a 75% increase from the frozen years, but still 47% below where we were six years ago.

This matters because these aren't soft options — they're structured interventions designed to keep kids out of deeper trouble. When a judge orders a young person into an education or rehab programme, they're saying: this kid needs support, not just consequences. The alternative is often nothing, or escalation into adult courts.

And that escalation is happening. While education orders have collapsed, the number of young people tried as adults has more than doubled since 2019. We're sending more kids into the adult system while simultaneously cutting the very programmes designed to divert them.

The timing of the 2019 collapse is striking. It predates COVID, predates the current political noise about youth crime. Something changed in how youth courts operate — whether it's funding, availability of programmes, or judicial discretion — and it changed permanently.

The 2024 uptick to 84 orders suggests some capacity is returning. But we're still nowhere near 2018 levels. Either the programmes aren't available, or judges aren't using them, or both.

So when the next politician stands up and demands we "get tough" on youth offending, ask them this: why did we stop ordering kids into the programmes that might actually help? Because the data shows we quietly dismantled that approach years ago, and we're still living with the consequences.