The crime debate in New Zealand runs hot. Politicians promise crackdowns. News bulletins lead with ram raids and retail theft. Social media amplifies every incident until it feels like the country's spiralling out of control.

Then you look at what's actually happening.

Between June and November 2025, New Zealand recorded an average of 28,253 total crime victimisations per month. That's down 12.4% from the previous six months — and it's the lowest sustained level in the dataset (Source: NZ Police, ANZSOC Tab_Full Data_data).

November 2025 saw 29,471 victimisations. Compare that to January, when the number was 34,723. That's 5,252 fewer crimes — the equivalent of wiping out every victimisation in a mid-sized regional town for an entire month.

The drop isn't a one-month fluke. July through November all came in under 30,000 victimisations. Before that? Every month from December 2024 through June 2025 was above 30,000. Some, like January and March, pushed past 33,000.

This matters because crime statistics get weaponised. A single shocking incident becomes proof the system's broken. A regional spike becomes a national crisis. Politicians call for tougher sentences, more police, harsher bail laws. But if the overall trend is moving in the opposite direction, those demands are solving yesterday's problem — or no problem at all.

The data doesn't explain why crime's falling. It could be more police on the streets. It could be demographics. It could be economic factors we won't understand for years. What it does show is that the crime wave narrative doesn't match what's happening in police records right now.

June was the turning point. That month recorded 27,140 victimisations — the lowest single month in the entire dataset. The months that followed stayed low. This isn't noise. It's a trend.

None of this means crime isn't still a problem. Nearly 30,000 victimisations a month means 30,000 people harmed, threatened, or robbed. But if you're making policy decisions based on the assumption that crime is surging, you're working from the wrong script.

The loudest voices in the crime debate aren't the ones checking the numbers. They're the ones telling you to be afraid. The numbers say something else.