Retail Crime Prevention New Zealand just made news for renting pricey Symonds Street office space against government advice (as reported by RNZ, February 2026). The timing is telling — because while the retail crime conversation gets louder, overall crime in New Zealand has been quietly heading in the opposite direction.

So here's a question worth asking: Is New Zealand actually getting more dangerous, or have we just convinced ourselves it is?

The latest Police data gives a clear answer. Between December 2024 and May 2025, New Zealand averaged 32,253 crime victimisations per month. Between June and November 2025, that number dropped to 28,253 — a fall of 12.4% (Source: NZ Police, ANZSOC Tab_Full Data_data).

That's not a rounding error. That's four thousand fewer crime victims every single month compared to six months earlier.

December 2024 saw the peak: 34,723 victimisations. By November 2025, it was down to 29,471. June hit the lowest point at just 27,140 — nearly 7,600 fewer victims than the January peak.

This matters because the crime conversation in New Zealand right now is almost entirely shaped by perception and headlines, not by what's actually happening on the ground. Retail groups are setting up task forces. Politicians are calling for tougher sentences. The public conversation assumes crime is surging.

But if you're looking at the total victimisation data — the fullest picture available of crime across all categories — the trend is downward. Steadily, consistently downward since the start of 2025.

None of this means specific crime types aren't problems. It doesn't mean retail workers aren't facing genuine risks. And it certainly doesn't mean we shouldn't care about the 28,000-plus people still being victimised every month.

But it does mean we should be honest about what the data actually shows. The narrative that New Zealand is becoming a more dangerous place doesn't match what's been happening for the past eleven months.

Crime policy driven by perception rather than data leads to bad decisions. It leads to expensive initiatives targeting problems that are already shrinking. It leads to politicians competing over who can sound toughest, rather than who can be most effective.

The question isn't whether crime matters — of course it does. The question is whether we're going to let the data inform the conversation, or whether we're going to keep reacting to the loudest voices in the room.

Right now, the loudest voices are winning. But the numbers tell a different story.