While politicians unveiled New Zealand's first national infrastructure plan this week, a different set of numbers tells a darker story about what's happening with our youngest offenders.

Youth court data shows 246 homicide and related offences in 2024 — the highest level since 1997, when the same dataset recorded similar figures. That's double the 120 cases from 2023, and more than triple the 72 cases in 2022. (Source: Ministry of Justice, youth-court-orders)

This isn't a small uptick. It's a spike that reverses years of decline.

Between 2020 and 2022, these offences were falling sharply. From 159 cases in 2020 to 126 in 2021, then down to just 72 in 2022. For two years, the trajectory looked promising. Then 2023 saw a modest increase to 120 cases — concerning, but not alarming. Then 2024 hit, and the number more than doubled.

What changed? The data doesn't tell us. But the scale of the increase — from 120 to 246 in a single year — suggests something systematic, not random noise. This is either a recording change, a policy shift affecting how cases are categorised, or a genuine surge in the most serious youth offending.

The timing matters. While media attention focuses on infrastructure spending and political scandals, this data arrived quietly. No press conference. No ministerial statement. Just a number in a dataset that shows New Zealand's youth justice system handling double the homicide-related cases it did twelve months ago.

To find a comparable year, you have to go back to 1997 — 27 years ago. For anyone under 40, this is uncharted territory. For context, 1997 was the year Princess Diana died, Tony Blair became UK Prime Minister, and the first Harry Potter book was published. New Zealand's youth justice system hasn't seen numbers like this since then.

The political conversation around youth crime tends to be loud and data-light. This number — 246 — should change that conversation. Whether it's an enforcement change or a real increase in serious youth offending, it deserves more attention than it's getting.

Because while we're planning roads and arguing about judges yelling at politicians, youth homicide cases just hit a 27-year high. And nobody seems to have noticed.