New Zealand just unveiled its first national infrastructure plan, promising billions for roads and water pipes. Meanwhile, one piece of social infrastructure got a sudden boost that nobody noticed: rehabilitation programs for young offenders.

Youth Court judges ordered 84 young people into education and rehabilitation programs in 2024 — a 75% jump from the 48 orders made in previous years. That's the highest number since 2018, when 159 such orders were made. (Source: Ministry of Justice, youth-court-orders)

But here's the reframe: 84 orders across an entire year, in a country where hundreds of young people move through Youth Court. These programs — the kind that actually address why a teenager is offending in the first place — are still vanishingly rare in our justice system.

The spike tells you something about judicial appetite. Between 2019 and 2023, the number sat flat at 48 orders per year. Then it jumped. Judges clearly think these programs work, or they wouldn't be using them more. Yet they're still reaching for them in fewer than one in ten cases that could qualify.

This matters because Youth Court is where the political rhetoric about "getting tough on youth crime" meets actual teenagers. And the data shows judges walking a tightrope: they're increasing rehab orders while public anxiety about crime stays high. They're trying something that research says works — education, structure, addressing trauma — but only in tiny doses.

The 2018 peak of 159 orders shows what's possible when the system decides to invest. That was six years ago. Since then, we dropped to 48 and stayed there for four years straight. The recent climb to 84 is progress, but it's still only halfway back to where we were.

So when politicians talk about youth justice, ask them this: if rehab programs are so ineffective, why are judges doubling their use? And if they're effective, why are we still only using them 84 times a year?

The answer probably has less to do with evidence and more to do with resources. These programs cost money. They require staff, facilities, coordination between agencies. A remand in custody or a fine is administratively simpler. But simpler doesn't mean better.

New Zealand just committed to a 30-year infrastructure plan. Youth rehabilitation — the kind that stops someone offending at 15 so they're not in prison at 25 — is infrastructure too. Right now, we're treating it like a luxury upgrade instead of essential plumbing.