Wellington's food price index hit 15,246 in 2024, up from 15,020 the year before. That's a gain of 226 points: the smallest year-on-year increase since the pandemic began. (Source: Stats NZ, food-price-index-regional)

The contrast is stark. Between 2022 and 2023, the index surged by 1,340 points. Between 2021 and 2022, it jumped by 1,007 points. Between 2020 and 2021, it climbed by 316 points. Last year? Just 226.

The inflation monster is finally slowing down. But here's the problem: it's not going backwards.

In 2021, Wellington's food price index sat at 12,673. Today, it's at 15,246. That's a cumulative increase of 2,573 points in three years. Your grocery bill didn't spike overnight. It climbed steadily, week after week, month after month, until the total became unbearable.

A Wellington household spending $250 a week on groceries in 2021 is now spending roughly $300 for the same items. That's an extra $2,600 a year. And that's assuming you haven't changed what you buy, haven't switched to cheaper brands, haven't started skipping meals to make the budget work.

The slowdown in 2024 means prices are still rising, just not as violently as before. You're still paying more this year than last year. You're just paying slightly less more than you were in 2023.

This is the story of cost-of-living pressure in New Zealand right now. The headlines say inflation is under control. The data says your grocery bill is still climbing, just at a pace that no longer makes the evening news.

Wellington's food price index has risen every single year since 2020. Not one year of relief. Not one year where prices fell back to where they were. The index in 2024 is 23% higher than it was in 2020.

If you're a renter in the capital, already paying record-high rent, this is the number squeezing you from the other side. If you're saving for a house, this is why your deposit fund isn't growing as fast as you thought it would. If you're retired on a fixed income, this is why your superannuation doesn't stretch as far as it did four years ago.

The good news: the worst of the food price surge is behind us. The bad news: none of it is coming back.