In 2021, 592,359 students in New Zealand received a student allowance. Three years later, that number sits at 442,833. That's 149,526 fewer students getting help to study. (Source: Stats NZ, taxable-income-sources)

To understand how we got here, you need to rewind to 2020. COVID hit. Campuses closed. But something unexpected happened: student allowance numbers jumped. From 579,438 in 2020 to 592,359 in 2021. Students stuck at home, jobs scarce, study suddenly looked like the smart move. The allowance made it possible.

Then 2022 arrived. The peak was over. Numbers dropped to 560,739. Not a collapse, but the tide had turned. Borders reopened. Jobs came back. Some students who'd enrolled during lockdown realised they'd rather work than accumulate debt.

2023 is where it gets brutal. The allowance count fell to 470,196. That's 90,543 students gone in a single year. The cost-of-living crisis was biting hard by then. Rent in Wellington and Auckland had become impossible on an allowance capped at $285.94 a week for those living away from home. Even with accommodation supplement, the maths didn't work. Students were choosing wages over degrees because they had to eat and pay rent this week, not in three years when they graduated.

By 2024, we're at 442,833. Another 27,363 students off the allowance. That's the lowest number since 2012, when New Zealand had a smaller population and fewer school leavers.

Think about what's really happening here. The allowance hasn't kept pace with rent. It hasn't kept pace with food costs. A student in 2024 gets roughly the same weekly payment as one in 2018, but their flat now costs $150 more per week and their grocery bill has exploded. The allowance was meant to make study accessible. Instead, it's become a subsidy that doesn't cover the actual cost of being a student.

The students who've disappeared from this dataset didn't stop wanting an education. They stopped being able to afford one, even with government help. Some are working full-time and studying part-time, which means no allowance. Some dropped out entirely. Some never enrolled, because they looked at the numbers and knew it wouldn't work.

We've lost nearly 150,000 students from the allowance system since 2021. Every one of them made a calculation: can I afford to study? For more and more young Kiwis, the answer is no.