Everyone's talking about crime. Politicians campaign on it. News leads with it. Public perception says it's spiralling.

But here's what they're not telling you: courts in the Bay of Plenty convicted 233,068 people in 2024. That's the lowest figure since 1987, when the region was smaller, younger, and had a fraction of today's population.

Four years ago, in 2020, the number was 246,728. That's 13,660 fewer convictions in just four years. The trajectory isn't subtle: 2021 saw 244,408, then 233,324 in 2022. A brief uptick to 241,384 in 2023, then back down to 233,068 last year.

This isn't some statistical blip. You have to scroll back through 37 years of court records to find a year when fewer people were convicted in the Bay of Plenty. Ronald Reagan was still US president. New Zealand had just gone through Rogernomics. The Berlin Wall was still standing.

The disconnect between perception and reality is stark. The Bay of Plenty's population has grown substantially since 1987. Tauranga alone has more than doubled in size. Yet convictions have fallen to their lowest point in nearly four decades.

What's driving this? It's not that crime has vanished. Police still make arrests. Courts still sit. But something fundamental has shifted in how many people end up with a conviction. Whether that's diversion programmes, changes in prosecution thresholds, different sentencing approaches, or simply fewer offences being committed, the result is the same: fewer convictions.

The 2020 to 2024 drop is particularly sharp. Over 13,000 fewer convictions in a region where the population didn't shrink. That's not a rounding error. That's a structural change in how the justice system operates, or what's flowing into it.

None of this fits the narrative you hear in parliament or see on social media. The story there is relentless: crime is out of control, courts are overwhelmed, nothing works. But the Bay of Plenty's conviction data tells a different story. It says that whatever else is happening, fewer people are leaving court with a criminal record than at any point since the late 1980s.

You can argue about what this means for community safety, recidivism, or justice outcomes. But you can't argue with the number itself: 233,068 convictions in 2024. The lowest in 37 years. That's the fact everyone's missing while they argue about everything else. (Source: Ministry of Justice, adults-convicted-by-sentence)