You know that feeling when your peer group suddenly gets too big? When the promotion you wanted goes to someone else because there are just too many qualified people in the room?

Welcome to your forties in 2024.

The number of New Zealanders aged 40-44 has surged from 2.6 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2024. That's an extra 317,000 people crammed into the same five-year age window in just four years (Source: Stats NZ, taxable-income-sources).

This isn't a baby boom. This is the millennials hitting their peak earning years all at once.

These are the years when you're supposed to get ahead. You've paid your dues, you know your industry, you're finally earning decent money. Except now you're doing it alongside a cohort that's grown by 12% since COVID started.

The competition isn't just for promotions. It's for everything. Housing stock that fits a growing family. School zones in decent catchments. Appointment slots with specialists who can handle your aging parents' health issues while your own kids need braces.

The 40-44 bracket has been growing steadily since 2000, but the acceleration is recent. Between 2000 and 2010, it grew by about 200,000 people total. Between 2020 and 2024 alone, it grew by nearly 320,000.

This matters because these are the years that determine your financial future. Miss a promotion now and you might never catch up. Lose income to take care of kids or parents and the gap widens. Get priced out of the housing market at 42 and you're looking at renting into retirement.

And unlike younger cohorts who can wait for their turn, or older ones who've already locked in their assets, this group is competing right now for limited resources: senior roles, affordable family homes, investment opportunities.

The data doesn't tell us why the surge happened. Immigration? People staying in New Zealand who might have left? Birth cohorts from the early 1980s finally all landing in the same age bracket?

What it does tell us is that being in your early forties in 2024 means being part of the biggest peer group this age range has ever seen. And when everyone's jostling for the same opportunities at the same time, something has to give.

The mortgage stress. The career plateau. The feeling that you're doing everything right but still falling behind. Maybe it's not just you. Maybe it's that there are suddenly 300,000 more people your age trying to do the exact same thing.